Topline
Bitcoin prices may swing wildly based upon the results of the presidential election, analysts at one Wall Street research firm warned Monday, as former President Donald Trump positions himself as the pro-crypto candidate.
Trump speaks at a bitcoin conference in Nashville this summer.
Key Facts
Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani wrote Monday the election will have a “short term impact on crypto sentiment” and on the price of the dominant cryptocurrency bitcoin, which sits at about $68,000, down from last week’s seven-month high of more than $73,000.
Bitcoin can rise to $80,000 to $90,000 over the next two months if the “pro-crypto candidate” Trump wins the election, Chhugani predicted, shattering the prior all-time high of nearly $73,800 set in March.
And if Vice President Kamala Harris prevails, Chhugani cautioned bitcoin “could test” a floor of $50,000, a level not seen since February, representing a more than 25% decline from Monday’s prices.
Chhugani noted the potentially looming bitcoin bearishness is a result of the Biden administration’s “hawkish” stance on regulating the crypto industry.
Surprising Fact
The highly bullish Bernstein group retained their $200,000 price target for bitcoin by the end of 2025 regardless of the election result, explaining the “genie is out of the bottle” for the $1.4 trillion digital asset with spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) the latest impetus bolstering the decentralized currency’s value.
Key Background
Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick wrote last month he expects bitcoin to end this year at $75,000 if Harris wins and $125,000 if Trump does. Price targets for highly volatile bitcoin prices are arguably less reliable than similar forecasts for other asset classes, like stocks, as bitcoin prices move as the market’s perception of its future use case, rather than based on earnings or other more fundamental root causes. An avowed bitcoin skeptic while in the oval office, Trump scored the endorsements of crypto leaders like billionaires Marc Andreessen, Cameron Winklevoss and Tyler Winklevoss this cycle as he warmed to the industry on the campaign trail and tapped longtime bitcoin investor JD Vance as his running mate.
Tangent
In recent months, bitcoin prices and Trump’s election odds on blockchain-based election betting platform Polymarket have moved in near lock step (see below chart). Bitcoin prices hit their seven-month high on the same day Trump’s election odds hit a multi-month peak, and dipped over the weekend as Harris’ betting market election odds jumped.
