The Bitcoin halving event has been scheduled to take place in the next 15 days. Based on historical data, it could trigger a bull run that would last months, setting new price peaks.
Crypto data analytics platform Kaiko believes BTC could record a new top within nine to twelve months after the event on April 20.
Bitcoin’s Rally Post-Halving
Kaiko explained that the short-term price impact of Bitcoin halving events has been mixed in the past, but historical data has clarified that the value of BTC tends to increase within a year post halving, one of the major reasons it has been deemed a bullish event.
The upcoming halving will reduce the rewards earned by miners for validating transactions by half. The previous halving slashed the rewards to 6.25 BTC; the next one will reduce them further to 3.125 BTC.
Following the previous halvings in November 2012, July 2016, and May 2020, BTC recorded returns of 9,000%, 4,000%, and 700%, respectively, within 12 months after the events. It remains uncertain how far BTC will surge, but analysts have predicted that the digital asset may increase by 200%.
On-chain analysis shows BTC has already entered the pre-halving danger zone, where it experiences significant price slumps as it prepares for takeoff post-halving. When the pre-halving retrace ends, the cryptocurrency commences a period of re-accumulation and dramatic uptrend.
Exceeding Analysts Expectations
Last month, American crypto exchange Coinbase warned that the historical evidence supporting the belief that only the halving event could propel Bitcoin’s rise was limited, making it somewhat speculative. The crypto trading platform insisted that the price of BTC is influenced by other factors, too, and not just the halving.
Per a CryptoPotato report, Coinbase outlined other macroeconomic factors like the U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts in May, selling pressure from miners and companies emerging from bankruptcy. Another undeniable factor is the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) market, which has opened doors for the inflow of fresh capital from traditional finance investors into the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Hence, bitcoin’s rise may exceed analysts’ expectations and predictions because the asset can be accessed by a wide range of investors, including institutions.
