Bitcoin has taken an important technical step forward, closing above its critical bull market support band — but whether this breakout is real or another fakeout will likely be determined over the next two weeks.
Key Bitcoin Price Indicators
Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen said Monday that Bitcoin investors should closely watch how Bitcoin behaves relative to two major indicators:
- The 20-week simple moving average (SMA)
- The 21-week exponential moving average (EMA)
Together, these averages form what’s called the bull market support band, a technical marker that has historically signaled Bitcoin’s longer-term momentum shifts.
Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin briefly rose above this key band in both July and August 2024 — only to lose steam and fall back into bearish territory. The question now: can Bitcoin sustain its move this time?
“If Bitcoin can close the next two weeks above the 20-week SMA, then it’s pretty optimistic,” Cowen said. “If we get a weekly close below the 21-week EMA, then my guess is that we get a new low.”
Tracking BTC Retail Interest
This test of Bitcoin’s strength comes at a time of unusually low retail investor engagement despite the cryptocurrency’s sizable gains through 2024 and early 2025.
Cowen’s analysis draws from his proprietary “social risk” metric, which tracks retail interest using indicators like:
- YouTube subscriber and view growth
- Twitter follower counts for analysts, exchanges, and blockchain projects
“Despite what it has felt like at times, retail interest never actually returned in the same way that it did in 2021,” Cowen said, comparing current conditions to 2019 — a year shaped by tight monetary policy and limited rate cuts.
Notably, Bitcoin dominance — the percentage of the total cryptocurrency market value held by Bitcoin — has risen for eight consecutive weeks, underscoring how altcoins are struggling without a strong retail-driven rally.
Key Bitcoin Metrics to Watch:
- Two consecutive weekly closes above the 20-week SMA = bullish sign
- Close below the 21-week EMA = bearish signal, potential for new lows
- Bitcoin dominance rising = retail still cautious, altcoins weakening
- Low social risk metrics = limited public FOMO compared to 2021
Bitcoin to $100,000?
Bitcoin holding above its bull market support band could be a major milestone on the road to $100,000. But it needs to prove it can sustain momentum — not just flash short-term strength.
If Bitcoin falters in the next two weeks, it could delay the much-anticipated surge to six figures.
However, if it stays firm, analysts believe Bitcoin could finally start the next major leg up, especially as monetary policy eases later in 2025.
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