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As attention is focused on Bitcoin, which is hovering around $95,000 after failing to breach the symbolic $100,000 barrier, data indicates that the flagship cryptocurrency is far from having reached its peak. Unlike previous bull cycles marked by frantic retail activity, this market now seems dominated by institutional investors, with an unprecedented dynamic.
A bullish dynamic driven by institutions
Recent analyses from CryptoQuant reveal an unusual picture in the Bitcoin ecosystem. Indeed, the current cycle is characterized by a stark contrast with the previous peaks of 2017 and 2021, where retail investors held up to 90 % of the positions. Today, this figure struggles to reach 50 %, with more modest participation from small holders. Since October, retail investors have reduced their positions by 41,000 BTC, while institutional investors, notably via exchange-traded funds (ETFs), have increased their holdings by 130,000 BTC.
This shift in actors marks a new era for Bitcoin. “Previous bullish cycles ended when retail investors aggressively bought, which is not the case today,” states CryptoQuant. This absence of frenzied activity could indicate that the market has not yet reached its top, suggesting significant growth potential ahead.
Towards an ambitious goal of $146,000
Despite recent corrections, projections remain optimistic. CryptoQuant’s realized price model sets the theoretical target for Bitcoin at $146,000 for this cycle. This threshold corresponds to the peaks observed during previous overheating periods, notably in April 2021. However, Bitcoin remains far from these extreme levels. The overvaluation indicator, the P&L Index, confirms that the market remains in a healthy valuation zone, with room for progression.
Moreover, the implications of this configuration are manifold. Some observers predict a correction of around 30% before Bitcoin sustainably surpasses six figures. Such a drop could bolster accumulation by major players, consolidating the foundations for gradual ascension. If the institutional dominance is confirmed, it could herald a new phase of stability, distancing the cryptocurrency from exacerbated speculative fluctuations.
With a market largely influenced by institutions, Bitcoin could experience structural evolution. The decrease in small investor participation alters the usual dynamics and strengthens the perception of it as a safe-haven asset and diversification. However, this transition also poses challenges: the market’s ability to sustain steady growth without massive adoption remains an open question.
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Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d’une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j’ai rejoint l’aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l’économie, j’ai pris l’engagement de sensibiliser et d’informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu’elle offre. Je m’efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l’actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
