Is Bitcoin’s Bull Run Already Over?


    In November, popular cryptocurrency Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) reached an all-time high over $68,000. At the time, the price of Bitcoin was up more than 100% since the start of 2021. But this epic bull run has cooled off in recent weeks, and Bitcoin has now pulled back about 30% from its high.

    In this video from Motley Fool Backstage Pass, recorded on Dec. 8, Fool analyst Eric Bleeker and contributor Jon Quast talk with Bernd Schmid, lead advisor of Motley Fool’s cryptocurrency service Digital Explorers, to get his opinion on whether Bitcoin is still in a bull market or not.

    Eric Bleeker: [Listener question]: “Someone said we’re still in a bull cycle. How did you figure that out?” That might have been hearing it a little not what Bernd had said there, but I can let Bernd describe it for himself.

    Bernd Schmid: No, I don’t know. I’m not trying to figure this out. I just don’t see right now why crypto should crash a lot, but I know as much as you and anybody else. Though I could add, if you look at the historical Bitcoin cycles, if you are aware of, or Google it, half time — Half time! [laughs] I’m a soccer fan — the halving cycle of Bitcoin. If you Google this, there is a certain Bitcoin cycle, and we are trending quite below and after what we’ve done historically. So that could just be an indication of like, let’s say picture is going to continue for the next couple of cycles. There should be an up leg, but I know as much as anybody else. We could be in a downtrend already at the start.

    Jon Quast: I’ll just add in here, when it comes to Bitcoin, because that’s the one that I follow the most here: One of the things that’s really interesting to me, I like to think of the cycles in terms of supply and demand. Just keeping very simple, is this cryptocurrency in demand or is the supply? What’s going on, which one is increasing more?

    One of the things that’s really interesting to me is how many of the Bitcoin miners actually aren’t selling anything that they’re mining. They’re keeping it all on the balance sheet. And so the circulating supply of Bitcoin hasn’t been really going up because the miners have been holding on to all the new things that they’re mining, and we’re seeing these corporate entities that are starting to purchase a little bit of Bitcoin diversify their balance sheet. So to me, that speaks to a cryptocurrency that still has a lot of demand, and the supply isn’t going up all that much. So that’s an interesting thing for me for Bitcoin.

    Bernd Schmid: Sorry, Eric. I want to comment. Thank you for bringing this up because that’s actually behind also my idea. If you look at surveys, a lot of the institutional investors [unintelligible] offer it. So they actually intend to buy Bitcoin, and these people call it the wall of money coming in. The institutions aren’t really here, because the infrastructure hasn’t been there yet. We are getting there. I think we are here in a big part. You can buy Bitcoin. And Bitcoin still drives, oftentimes, the rest because people start buying Bitcoin and then diversify from there. So that would be the more fundamental reason.

    This article represents the opinion of the writer, who may disagree with the “official” recommendation position of a Motley Fool premium advisory service. We’re motley! Questioning an investing thesis — even one of our own — helps us all think critically about investing and make decisions that help us become smarter, happier, and richer.





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