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Bitcoin has recently reached new historical highs, fueling hopes of a prolonged bull market. However, with an apparent slowdown in the current cycle, when can we realistically expect the queen of cryptos to reach her peak?
An Accelerated Cycle Losing Steam
When Bitcoin reached new highs in mid-March 2024, it was ahead of the usual post-Halving cycle by 260 days. However, after two months of consolidation, this acceleration pace fell to 210 days.
According to the analysis of Rekt Capital, a recognized expert in the field of cryptocurrencies, if this slowdown trend persists, it could gradually resynchronize the current cycle with the classic pattern where Bitcoin reaches its peak 518 to 546 days after the Halving.
However, rather than focusing solely on the Halving, it might be pertinent to use previous historical highs as reference points to anticipate a potential bull market peak.
Indeed, analysis of past cycles reveals that Bitcoin generally reaches a bull market peak within 266 to 315 days after surpassing its previous all-time high. Bitcoin crossed this threshold in mid-March 2024, allowing us to reasonably expect the next peak between late November 2024 and late January 2025.
The Progressive Lengthening of Bitcoin Bull Cycles
Despite the initial acceleration of the cycle, a retrospective analysis reveals an interesting trend: Bitcoin spends more and more time above its previous records before reaching a new high.
In 2013, this duration was 268 days, then it increased to 280 days in 2017 (+14 days) and to 315 days in 2021 (+35 days). If we extrapolate this trend, the next peak might not occur until between mid-December 2024 and early March 2025, 280 to 350 days after surpassing the previous record.
However, if the current cycle slowdown is confirmed, Bitcoin could resynchronize with traditional post-Halving cycles. In this scenario, based on the 518 to 546 days observed in previous cycles, the next bullish peak would be pushed back to mid-September or mid-October 2025.
In short, although the euphoria of early 2024 has raised hopes of an early peak in the Bitcoin bull market, a thorough analysis of past cycles and current dynamics suggests patience. Barring an unlikely acceleration, the next absolute peak is unlikely to occur before the end of 2024, or more likely during 2025.
Wise investors therefore need to take a long-term view and not get carried away by short-term market fluctuations. Only a strategic and disciplined approach will enable us to take full advantage of Bitcoin’s growth potential in the years to come.
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Passionné par le Bitcoin, j’aime explorer les méandres de la blockchain et des cryptos et je partage mes découvertes avec la communauté. Mon rêve est de vivre dans un monde où la vie privée et la liberté financière sont garanties pour tous, et je crois fermement que Bitcoin est l’outil qui peut rendre cela possible.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
