Over the years, crypto markets have proven to be heavily influenced by Bitcoin’s cycle. Indeed, BTC has a distinct cycle punctuated by the halving event, its only monetary policy measure.
The next bull run will occur at Bitcoin’s halving
All BTC issued were created and distributed as rewards to miners who succeeded in mining blocks on the Bitcoin blockchain. An average of one block is always mined every ten minutes, and initially in 2009, 50 BTC were distributed as a reward for each block mined.
Bitcoin’s monetary policy is extremely simple, fixed, and absolutely predictable: every 210,000 blocks mined, over about four years, the reward is halved.
The first halving that brought the reward down to 25 BTC per block occurred in 2012, and in 2013 triggered the first major speculative bubble in Bitcoin’s price, followed by two years of bear market.
In 2016 the second halving occurred, and the scenario was the same: big speculative bubble in 2017, then two years of bear market.
In 2020 there was the third halving, and in 2021 a new speculative bubble inflated, although much smaller than the previous ones.
For the director of the investment firm Morgan Creek, Mark Yusko, a similar scenario could repeat itself this time, with two years of bear market until the next halving.
In fact, the next halving of the reward for Bitcoin miners will occur in the spring of 2024, so 2022 and 2023 could prove to be difficult years for the price of BTC.
As crypto markets follow Bitcoin’s cycle, it is possible that this is the trend for other major cryptocurrencies as well.
Morgan Creek’s prediction for the crypto market
According to Yusko, Bitcoin’s recent market structure is indicative of a bottoming process, although he is not entirely convinced that the bottom has already been touched. However, he believes that there is a bullish trend underway, which could result in a slight correction in the short term.
The new bull run could be triggered between early to mid-2024, during the period when the next halving should take place.
Yusko says that the crypto winter may be coming to an end, and perhaps some sort of crypto spring could begin. But a new crypto summer will have to wait until 2024.
It is worth noting that in both previous cases, the bubble inflated the year following the halving, while the actual year of the halving marked only the end of the crypto winter, in other words, the beginning of what Yusko calls the crypto spring. In this case, however, he says that crypto spring may come before the halving, while a new bull run might already be triggered in 2024.
Since miners tend to sell the BTC they cash in by mining, after the halving they will have half of it to sell on a daily basis, so the selling pressure could also reduce significantly. Should the buying pressure not reduce as much, it is indeed possible that the consequence will be price increases.