Navigating The Coming Crypto Winter

I wrote an article earlier in the week that I had to scrap because it became outdated before I even had a chance to upload it. The article argued that gold is for war, and bitcoin is for flight. The premise was that if Ukraine were to be thrown under the bus, it might prevent bitcoin from crashing. It also included this chart:

This indicated that a breakout from its recent range – one way or the other – would determine the next big move.

Well, here we are:

Now, this could mean that Ukraine is not going to be abandoned, or it could simply signal the start of the crypto winter, as I’ve been predicting for months.

What to do?

1. If you’re a bitcoin maxi, you might look to buy even more around $60,000. Traditionally, you just keep dollar cost averaging (DCA) your monthly allocation because bitcoin is “going to the moon” – $1m, $20m, you know, the ‘infinity and beyond’ tune. To a bitcoin maxi, booms and crashes are just noise.
2. If you are a nervous holder consider lightening up or even exiting entirely. If you bought in the $20,000s, you’re doing fine. A classic mistake is riding the boom all the way back down.
3. If you are a trader, trade this like a maniac. This is when you should prove your skill and make money. If you can’t profit in these markets, you might need to rethink your strategy.
4. Don’t short – shorting crypto is for the birds!
5. Here’s what I’ll do: Wait a couple of years for the bottom, then dollar cost average back in – assuming Wall Street hasn’t zombified crypto by then.

We’re living in unusual times – and not necessarily in a good way. Gold is for war, and bitcoin for flight, so expect gold to trend upward over the next few years. If bitcoin rallies sharply, look for the wealthy insiders who are in the know and are about to go on the run. This could still happen in Ukraine, but in these situations, price movements will signal shifts long before the news does. So don’t wait for TV or social media to tell you what already happened days or weeks ago.

If you want to doubt this breakdown, that’s fine – but it’s probably a good idea to set mental stop-losses, and even multiple ones, to manage portions of your holdings. The eventual low, when we get there, is likely between $40,000 and $60,000.

This is all part of a recurring cycle that has played out many times before. In these months of uncertainty, unexpected events could heavily influence the market. However, based on my model – which I’ve been writing about for years – this marks the end of the boom and the start of the crypto winter. It may give false hope, but there won’t be a $250,000 BTC this time around. Sorry.

Meanwhile, don’t forget counterparty risk. Not your keys, not your bitcoin!