Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is out with a new report this week focused on the future of the Apple Watch lineup. According to the analyst, the Apple Watch lineup coming in 2024 is unlikely to “have significant innovative experiences.”
This report, combined with several other recent ones, has made me realize the need for nuance in our coverage. Hear me out…
The general consensus among other sources is that the Apple Watch will switch to micro-LED, starting with the Apple Watch Ultra. Apple’s original target for this change was believed to be 2025, but some sources have said the timeline has been pushed to 2026.
Kuo’s report today says that he believes the 2025 Apple Watch will use micro-LED, but he “wouldn’t be surprised if it’s postponed to 2026.” Insightful and helpful stuff there, Kuo.
With that said, Kuo outlines that the 2024 Apple Watch refresh is “unlikely to have significant innovative experiences.” This comes as Bloomberg has reported on Apple’s plans to debut a dramatically overhauled “Apple Watch X” update in 2024 or 2025. If Kuo is correct, this means the Apple Watch X likely isn’t in the cards for next year.
9to5Mac’s Take
I have to say, Ming-Chi Kuo’s has become less and less useful as of late. While he still clearly has strong supply chain sources, his recent reports have been incredibly vague, scattershot, and sometimes downright wrong. It’s almost as if he has a certain quota he’s trying to hit, leading to reports that draw unnecessary conclusions and that are full of mental gymnastics.
Years ago, Kuo was the best in the business. He published in-depth research reports through KGI Securities and then TF Securities. Now, he’s posting directly on Twitter and on his own personal Medium blog. This includes a bizarre report yesterday on Tesla’s Cybertruck production.
The strategy seems to be to offer fewer specific details, more speculation, more “analysis,” and more “captain obvious” moments. My frustration with this trend has been brewing for a long time, and something about today’s Apple Watch report set me off.
For instance, today’s report says the Apple Watch’s “highly anticipated blood glucose monitoring feature won’t happen in 2024 and possibly not in 2025.” As far as I’m aware, no one has reported that the blood glucose monitoring technology is anywhere close to being ready for the Apple Watch.
While Apple has made breakthroughs in this category, the company’s current focus, according to Bloomberg, is on developing “a prototype device about the size of an iPhone that can be strapped to a person’s [biceps].” There was no expectation that noninvasive blood glucose monitoring would come to the Apple Watch within the next two years.
Kuo’s report also includes the vague statement that Apple Watch can be integrated with Vision Pro to “create an unparalleled and innovative health management experience to drive shipment momentum for both products further.”
Cool, I guess?
I can also report that my toothbrush will integrate with Vision Pro to “create an unparalleled and innovative health management experience to drive shipment momentum for both products further.” Try and prove me wrong, I dare you.
And there are instances where Kuo has simply been wrong. It’s been more than a week since he blamed titanium for the short-lived iPhone 15 Pro heat-gate controversy and suggested Apple would throttle iPhone performance to fix the problem.
Apple released iOS 17.0.3 last week, and by all accounts, the update solves the overheating problem without impacting performance. Kuo hasn’t said a peep about the situation since then, and John Gruber has an interesting theory on where Kuo’s information might have come from.
Kuo still has his bright spots and still clearly has solid sources within some parts of Apple’s supply chain. He was one of the first to report on iPhone 15’s switch to USB-C and periscope camera, for example. He shared highly accurate details about the 2022 MacBook Air design nearly a year before its release.
Every source that reports rumors and leaks gets things wrong. That includes Kuo, that includes 9to5Mac, that includes Bloomberg. Apple is a big company, and sometimes, you just get fed incorrect or outdated information. Plans change.
What I’m attempting to point out here is that, lately, the bar for what Kuo publishes seems to have gotten dramatically lower. And I think our coverage of Kuo’s reporting going forward will be more nuanced and will point out this trend unless he proves otherwise.
Follow Chance: Threads, Twitter, Instagram, and Mastodon.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
