One Chart You Must See

Most eyes are on Ethereum
ETH
with the “merge” imminent. That will likely be a moment of serial unintended consequences. I’m not a fan of proof-of-stake (POS), it runs against the founding principles of crypto. $1 dollar 1 vote is not something anyone has ever suggested was a good idea for governance, so POS seems like an obviously bad idea. However, we shall see and there are plenty of blockchain pretenders out there to take the ETH crown should the merge fail.

Meanwhile bitcoin is crying out that repricing is coming.

Here is the chart:

What we are seeing is two things that are big technical signals. The most important is the big drop in volatility, which you can see in this chart. This compression of volatility is often a prelude to a repricing. It is a very strong indicator that bitcoin is about to have a big move.

The second indicator is only a reinforcement that a move is on the cards. It is the formation of a potential W bottom. For the bulls this will be very comforting because they will hope for this:

I’m a bear but I do not discount that. This current setup says $10,000 or $40,000 and while that seems typically 50/50 it isn’t.

Here is the chart of my expectations:

But the key is not a choice between bull or bear, it’s the opportunity to rise the next trend a very long and profitable way.

If any of these projections start to pan out, it’s a high probability they will go all the way. Being a bull 0r bear at these levels make no sense, what is obvious is bitcoin is going to travel far away from these levels and getting the direction of travel early on can make for excellent profits.

With the volatility shrinking the market is telling us the repricing is near.

If it breaks down I’ll be re-entering. If it breaks up I will think about taking positions in the secondary blockchains because I still won’t be convinced the crypto winter is over and a little bit of high beta crypto will be enough risk for me at that point.

It’s time to get ready for a big move.