A user on the Polymarket prediction platform has bet $1.2 million on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.
The user, known by the wallet address “paragon,” received funds traced back to crypto trading firm QCP Capital, according to Arkham data.
The bet was split between two major positions: over $600,000 on an outcome where Trump loses and an equal amount on a Harris victory, meaning they are betting that Kamala Harris will win the election.
If their prediction proves accurate, the user stands to win over $2.6 million.
Following the Sept. 10 debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, both candidate’s odds on Polymarket were tied at 49%. Trump’s 5% lead dropped significantly after the debate, where he had previously seen a high of 72% following the Bitcoin 2024 conference. The total amount of bets on the next U.S. president has exceeded $860 million, with Trump and Harris leading the pool.
Bitcoin (BTC) slumped over 2.5% following the debate.
The intersection of crypto and politics
QCP Capital is a Singapore-based crypto trading firm known for its influence in the digital assets market. The firm provides trading, investment, and liquidity services across a wide range of financial instruments, including crypto and options trading.
QCP Capital’s participation in a high-profile bet like this shows that crypto finance and politics are intertwined in an unprecedented way this election season.
In addition, Polymarket, the platform where the bet was placed, has gained massive traction this election as bettors have placed large amounts of bets on current events. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market that allows users to bet on the outcome of real-world events using crypto.
Created in 2020, Polymarket’s popularity reached all-time highs this year. Traders tabled $100 million in cumulative bets in June alone.
The intersection of politics and crypto in the 2024 U.S. election, with platforms like Polymarket enabling people to put their crypto assets on the line in political betting, shows the increasing integration of decentralized finance into traditional industries and real-world events.
