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Welcome to the On the Margin Newsletter, brought to you by Ben Strack and Casey Wagner. Here’s what you’ll find in today’s edition:
- Some mining stocks have surged since the halving; others haven’t. We try to make sense of the leaderboard.
- Though the DNC is underway, folks curious about the Harris/Walz crypto stance best be patient.
- The economic data and remarks to watch/listen for this week as the interest rate question persists.
Four months after halving, a look at mining stock moves
We wrote last week about the seeming health of various bitcoin miners — taking into account their Q2 results and what they have in the pipeline.
But today marks exactly four months since the last Bitcoin halving, giving us another chance to evaluate the companies in a bit of a different light.
The big question in April was which mining companies would survive — and thrive — after an event that slashed per-block mining rewards. Industry watchers had guessed at least some ailing mining stocks would show post-halving strength, spurring share price rebounds.
So which ones have been good buys so far?
The public bitcoin miner with the biggest stock price gain — from April 19’s market close to Aug. 19’s open — is Core Scientific, at 229%, Yahoo Finance data shows.
Core Scientific expanded its deal with CoreWeave earlier this month to offer an additional 112 megawatts of high-performance computing (HPC) infrastructure (supporting the burgeoning AI category).
“It became clear back in Q1 that those bitcoin miners who bridged the gap needed for AI infrastructure would outperform those who were solely focused on securing the Bitcoin network,” said Dan Weiskopf, co-portfolio manager of the crypto-focused Amplify Transformational Data Sharing ETF (BLOK).
Also seeing significant share price boosts from four months ago are TeraWulf and Iris Energy, at 79% and 63%, respectively. An honorary mention goes to Hut 8 Mining, which has enjoyed a 44% gain.
Others in the green — albeit to a lesser degree — are Bitfarms (23%), Hive Digital Technologies (12%) and Bitdeer (9%).
Those with essentially flat share prices since April 19 are mining giants Marathon Digital and New York-based Cipher Mining.
Two big public miners that have endured share price declines since the halving have been CleanSpark and Riot Platforms, which have lost 31% and 12%, respectively.
Some mining companies have indeed looked to combat declining mining profits by building out their HPC businesses to support AI applications, noted BIT Mining chief economist Youwei Yang.
“Most of the crypto miners [that] chose to transform into AI are still in the pilot phase,” he said. “Some are more successful than others…but this is definitely an area to look out for potential prosperity.”
While Weiskopf said he is excited about “the AI side of the portfolio,” not every miner can, or wants, to build out that type of capability.
“Those companies that are pursuing the HPC-AI opportunity are building a more steady business,” he told Blockworks. “But if bitcoin explodes to the upside, they may prove to be less correlated to that price action — especially since some of the pure-play miners have leveraged up by adding to their bitcoin treasury.”
CLSK and RIOT offer a more “singular focus” — fitting into the portfolio as “higher beta plays on the price action of bitcoin.” Not to mention Marathon, which now owns more than 25,000 BTC after two big buys of the asset in recent weeks.
While CORZ is the biggest holding in the ETF that Weiskopf co-manages (at about 5.7%), the fund has 2%-plus allocations in Hut 8, CleanSpark, Bitfarms and Marathon.
Different miners have different edges, and the post-halving leaderboard is likely to evolve as does the crypto market. Stay tuned.
— Ben Strack
$4.5 billion
The approximate assets under management for crypto fund manager Bitwise following its acquisition of London-based ETC Group.
The buy gives the San Francisco firm a broader global footprint, as it will take over ETC Group’s nine European-listed crypto ETPs.
Bitwise’s largest fund is its Bitcoin ETF (BITB), which has grown to roughly $2.3 billion since launching in January. The firm launched a spot ether ETF last month, and its newly acquired offerings include ones focused on other crypto assets such as solana and XRP.
Are Harris/Walz talking crypto at the DNC?
The Democratic National Convention kicked off today in Chicago.
Kamala Harris and running mate Tim Walz are not scheduled to take the stage until later this week, likely after delegates officially nominate them as the party’s pick to take on Donald Trump in November.
Democrats released their party platform Sunday evening, which was written before President Joe Biden bowed out of the race last month. It’s pretty obvious the authors penned it before Harris stepped in, given they refer to Biden’s “second term” almost 20 times.
Still, it’s expected Harris will adopt many of the same values laid out by party leadership. The platform makes no mention of digital assets, blockchain or crypto, which some say is actually a sign Democrats are viewing the industry more favorably.
Dems aren’t calling for more power to the SEC, for banks to block crypto customers, or even for increased crackdowns on scams, Cinneamhain Ventures partner Adam Cochran said on X Monday. While Sen. Elizabeth Warren actively called for “anti-crypto” policy, current party leadership appears to be punting the issue, at least for now.
I’d have to agree that no mention of crypto seems to signal the party is not feeling hostile toward the industry. But I do wonder how long this silence will last, especially if Harris makes it to the White House.
Historically, candidates tend to do better in the polls post-convention, so expect a Harris/Walz spike after Thursday. Another big political event for investors to keep an eye on will be the first presidential debate between Trump and Harris, scheduled for Sept. 10.
— Casey Wagner
On Our Radar
We hope you had a good weekend! After last week’s mixed data, markets will be looking for reassurance that interest rate cuts are coming in September and economic growth is not slowing too much. Here’s what’s on tap this week:
- On Wednesday, we’ll get the minutes from the Fed’s July FOMC meeting. Investors will be looking for signals that central bankers are satisfied with recent cooling inflation numbers and positive labor reports.
- The flash services PMI report will go out Thursday. It’s the first national data point for August, plus a leading economic indicator — making it a figure to watch. July’s report came in at 55, showing some industry expansion. Investors should be happy with another read in this range; anything too hot or too cold could derail interest rate cut plans.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell is slated to give an address from Jackson Hole Friday at the annual Economic Symposium. The highly anticipated remarks should give investors a sense of whether or not the Fed is seriously considering an interest rate cut at its next meeting. While markets seem confident the first rate cut will come in September, Powell is unlikely to comment on the size of this predicted cut, which is anticipated to be either 25 or 50 basis points.
— Casey Wagner
Bulletin Board
- Franklin Templeton filed for an ETF on Friday that would initially hold both BTC and ETH — and would consider allocating to other crypto assets if given the regulatory green light. The application resembles a similar planned ETF submitted by Brazil-based asset manager Hashdex in June.
- Net flows into US spot bitcoin ETFs were minimal last week ($32 million), mimicking the relatively stable price action of the underlying asset over that span. US spot ether ETFs meanwhile saw slight outflows from Aug. 12 to Aug. 16, amounting to $14 million. ETH’s price was up 1.6% from a week ago on Monday afternoon.
- The November election is likely what will break bitcoin’s holding pattern, Stocklytics analyst Neil Roarty said in a Monday email. He added: “Until we know the name of the next US president, it looks like bitcoin bulls and bears will need to play the waiting game.”
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