Report Suggests Bitcoin To Peak In 2024, But Here’S Whether Its Winter Over Or Not


There are several factors that could suggest that the crypto market is entering a new phase of growth. For example, the recent surge in interest in non-fungible tokens (NFTs) has demonstrated the potential for cryptocurrencies to be used in new and innovative ways. Additionally, the increasing number of countries and institutions exploring the creation of their own digital currencies could indicate a growing acceptance of cryptocurrency as a legitimate form of money.

As we approach the midpoint of 2023, many cryptocurrency investors and enthusiasts are wondering if the so-called “crypto winter” is over. For those unfamiliar with the term, the crypto winter refers to a prolonged period of decline in cryptocurrency prices that began in late 2017 and lasted well into 2018 and 2019.

During this time, many cryptocurrencies lost over 90 percent of their value, and the overall market capitalisation of the crypto space shrank significantly. The crypto winter was a brutal time for investors and enthusiasts, and many people began to wonder if the entire crypto industry was doomed to fail.

However, in 2020 and 2021, the crypto market began to rebound. Bitcoin, the largest and most well-known cryptocurrency, surpassed its previous all-time high of nearly $20,000 in late 2020 and went on to reach a new all-time high of over $60,000 in early 2021. Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum, also experienced significant gains during this time.

Valuation range

A recent media wire reported that the popular cryptocurrency – bitcoin – could reach $100,000 by the end of 2024, according to Standard Chartered report.

The oscillations of valuations of the cryptocurrencies has been as volatile as your and my mood swings. No one seems to agree with anyone else on why the Crypto pricing is moving higher. Making a prediction on the value of a currency that is still seen as an outsider by global financial regulators is a challenge. At the same time this week, a senior US regulatory official was quoted mentioning that anonymity of Crypto assets is financing illegal activities.

So it’s more confusing that there are regulatory concerns and open issues pending solutions. And parallely Crypto pricing is trending upward. On the one hand, the recent bull run has certainly been impressive, and many cryptocurrencies have seen significant gains over the past year or so. Bitcoin, in particular, has once again become a mainstream topic of conversation, with major corporations and institutional investors now getting involved in the space.

Institutional acceptance

One of the key indicators of a healthy market is the level of institutional adoption. While there has been some progress in this area, with major financial institutions and companies investing in cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology, there is still a long way to go.

Many institutional investors remain hesitant to enter the market due to the lack of regulatory clarity and the high level of volatility. Until there is a more stable and regulated market, it is unlikely that there will be a significant increase in institutional adoption.

Law of Economics

Specifically, for Bitcoin, economics could help them with pricing booster. Bitcoin could be on the upswing due to the fact that in May 2024, the next Bitcoin-halving milestone occurs.

Bitcoin halving is when the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is cut to half of current levels. This event has been programmed by the bitcoin founder to occur every 210,000 blocks ( averaging to every 4 years). This has been one of artificial inflationary adjustment that Bitcoin has in its algorithm. Cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin have a limited supply,

with a maximum of 21 million Bitcoins that can ever exist. This scarcity can contribute to an increase in price as people compete to buy a limited amount of coins.

The most recent Bitcoin halving occurred in May 2020, and its impact on pricing has been a topic of much debate in the cryptocurrency community. Data shows that the previous two halvings have been followed by significant increases in Bitcoin prices Inflation

Inflation has been a major concern for many individuals and institutions around the world. As central banks continue to print money and inject it into the economy, the value of fiat currencies has been eroded. This has led many people to look for alternative stores of value, such as cryptocurrencies. Unlike traditional currencies, cryptocurrencies are not subject to inflation because their supply is limited by design.

Other forms of acceptance

Furthermore, there are several factors that could suggest that the crypto market is entering a new phase of growth. For example, the recent surge in interest in non-fungible tokens (NFTs) has demonstrated the potential for cryptocurrencies to be used in new and innovative ways. Additionally, the increasing number of countries and institutions exploring the creation of their own digital currencies could indicate a growing acceptance of cryptocurrency as a legitimate form of money.

Cryptocurrencies are seen by many as an attractive alternate against geopolitical risk. Because cryptocurrencies are decentralised and not subject to the actions of any particular government or institution, they can offer a degree of stability in uncertain times. This is a thesis that only few categories of investors with higher risk-perception can manage.

Official acceptance ?

But is the regulatory concerns on the issue of cryptocurrencies over ?

Cryptocurrencies have been a hot topic in the financial world for the past few years, and for good reason. While some people view cryptocurrencies as a revolutionary new way to conduct transactions, others see them as a dangerous and unregulated market that could lead to financial instability. Regulatory concerns regarding cryptocurrencies have been voiced by many governments and financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the G20.

One of the biggest regulatory concerns regarding cryptocurrencies is their lack of transparency. Unlike traditional financial markets, which are regulated by various government agencies, cryptocurrencies are largely unregulated. This means that there is no one overseeing the market to ensure that it is fair and transparent.

The global financial regulators and institutions like IMF have warned that cryptocurrencies could pose a threat to financial stability if they were to become more widely used. It fears that cryptocurrencies being highly volatile and could lead to market instability, if their prices were to suddenly drop. Many have expressed concerns about the potential for cryptocurrencies to be used for illegal activities, and called for greater regulation of the market.

Similarly, the G20 has also expressed concerns about the regulatory implications of cryptocurrencies. In a recent statement, the G20 called for greater regulation of the market to ensure that it is fair and transparent. With cryptocurrencies still in their early stages of development, there is a need for greater clarity regarding their legal status and regulatory framework.

While some countries, such as Japan and Switzerland, have taken steps to regulate the market, others have been more cautious. The United States, for example, has yet to provide clear guidance on the legal status of cryptocurrencies, leaving investors uncertain about their rights and responsibilities. Until there is greater clarity from regulators around the world, it will be difficult for the market to fully recover.

Gains

The crypto market is notoriously volatile, and prices can change rapidly and dramatically. Just because cryptocurrencies have seen gains recently doesn't mean that those gains will continue indefinitely. Additionally, there are still significant regulatory and security concerns surrounding cryptocurrencies that could hinder their long-term growth.

it is important to consider the psychological impact of the most recent crypto winter. Many investors lost significant amounts of money during the market downturn, which could make them hesitant to re-enter the market. There is also a risk that the market could experience a “dead cat bounce,” where prices briefly rise before falling again. This could further erode investor confidence and make it more difficult for the market to recover.

While there are certainly signs that the crypto market is entering a new phase of growth, there are also potential pitfalls that could derail that growth. As always, investors should approach the crypto market with caution and do their research before making any investment decisions.

The author, Dr. Srinath Sridharan, is a Policy Researcher & Corporate Advisor. The views expressed are personal and this is not an investment advice.   

Read his previous articles here 



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