00:00:00 Josh Lipton
Well, US stocks surgeon closing near the highs of the session. A deal to temporarily slash reciprocal terrorists between the US and China lifting spirits. And Yahoo Finance’s Jared Blickre joins us now with the trading day takeaways. Jared.
00:00:15 Jared Blikre
Thank you, Josh. It is risk on once again. And to be fair, it’s been kind of risk on for the last month, but everything was kind of out of whack and things are starting to seem a bit more normal today. Let me just go down the list of some of the price actions, some of the sector movements that I’ve been taking that I’ve been looking at today. This is the S&P 500 best performers. And this is a pretty interesting mix. You got some semiconductors in. Apollo, that’s our parent company, so you got private equity, a bunch of more semiconductors, Carnival Cruise lines, a bunch of retail names like Lululemon, and then also a couple of energy names. But for the most part, the utilities weren’t doing that well. And if I sort by performance, you’re going to see in the upper left, energy and SWK. That’s Stanley, uh, Black and Decker, uh, kind of a dark horse here, came and stole the show today. So we have a lot of retail names and a lot of tech names that have just come roaring back. What did not work today? Now, this is an interesting mix, too. I mentioned utilities. Those are more defensive and so those, uh, kind of make sense that they didn’t do as well today. Staples as well, Waste Management, Altria Group, you know, cigarettes, CVS, Signa Group in terms of health care, didn’t see that do that well. Um, but if we go down the line here, I’m going to show a couple different, uh, let’s go to the sectors and just show you what outperformed. XLYS, Consumer Discretionary, that’s really an Amazon and Tesla story. I’ve been showing the Nasdaq 100 all day, so I’m not going to show it again, but tech also outperformed. What didn’t do well, there’s utilities, real estate, staples, all three of those defensive. And I can show you gold miners. Gold had an off day today. It’s kind of a defensive play. So not surprisingly, we saw the gold miners down as well. But you’re not going to see too many other red screens like this. For the most part, and I’ll go through the software screen, here’s semiconductors, here’s disruption in terms of Arc Innovation components. Very, very risk on day.
00:04:04 Josh Lipton
So those are the headlines. Under the headlines, Jared, under the hood, what are the subtleties we need to be aware of?
00:04:15 Jared Blikre
All right. I’ve been watching dollars and yields. So the correlation between dollars and yields have been, uh, it’s been upset since the tariff era. And before Trump came in as president, in the bull market that we had starting in the fourth quarter of 2022, we saw dollar and yields, they were moving in the same direction, either up or down most days, but then the tariff, it kind of changed things. And so we saw the whole world just selling dollars, uh, in order to basically get rid of dollar-denominated assets. But something happened last Wednesday after the Fed meeting, and I was noting this, uh, right here, actually, and that is the dollar and yields started going in the same direction. So this is a year-to-date chart of the 10-year T-note yield. Just want to show you what happened today, up eight basis points. That’s a pretty big jump there for the 10-year. US dollar index up 1.5%, that is a huge move for a currency, much less the reserve currency of the world. And why am I saying risk on when the dollar is up so much? It’s not so much that the dollar index is up. It’s kind of a signal that the world is saying, okay, it’s okay to own dollars again. And that was a problem in the tariffs. So it’s only been three trading days since I’ve seen this relationship kind of reassert and we’ll have to see what happens going forward, but this is a very good sign to me.
00:06:08 Josh Lipton
Final point I’d like to ask you about, Bitcoin perhaps. Should we get to that? Because it was a risk on day, Bitcoin down. What’s the issue?
00:06:23 Jared Blikre
Let’s, yeah. Exactly. And as I noted last week after the Fed meeting, it was crypto that was kind of leading the way. We saw muted reactions in the indices and we didn’t see a lot to get excited about there. But let’s check out crypto. So this is another kind of red board, but if we take a look over the last five days, huge, uh, huge movement in some of these. Let me just show you Bitcoin and we’ll do a year-to-date chart. So a lot of this movement happened right in here. And by the way, we are within just a few percentage points, maybe five percentage points, of the record highs, which are over here. So Bitcoin led the way, got started, but now it’s kind of stalling out near those record highs, as a lot of markets are want to do. If you’re looking at this, this is kind of like a giant cup and what we might be doing is forming a handle here before we go higher. So the way I see it, Bitcoin is just kind of pausing before it breaks to those record highs. And it might take a little bit, uh, but I think, uh, the bulls have made the case here that this is, uh, probably the market, one of the markets to be in. It is a leader. Ethereum, not so much a leader, but it is playing a game of catchup. Um, let’s look at over the last 10 days. You can see 34%, uh, pretty impressive move there. But again, today itself, we’re looking at a downdraft of 1.12%. Why? Because we have the 200-day moving average right there. So again, another technical play in Ethereum and also Bitcoin, but I still see them as leaders.
