- A YouTuber has been outlining some compelling theories on RX 9070 performance versus the RTX 5070
- This theorizing is based on purported internal AMD benchmarks for the RX 9070, and napkin maths for RTX 5070 frame rates
- If it pans out, the RX 9070 XT could easily beat the RTX 5070 Ti, and even come within 10% of the RTX 5080
AMD’s RX 9070 models could handily outgun Nvidia’s mid-range RTX 5070 Ti and 5070 graphics cards, if a considered prediction from a YouTuber pans out.
This is regular rumor peddler Moore’s Law is Dead (MLID), who in his latest video (embedded below) engages in some napkin maths to work out where the performance of the RTX 5070 and 5070 Ti GPUs are likely to weigh in (more on the intricacies therein shortly). The YouTuber then compares that to internal benchmarks purportedly carried out by AMD a month ago with its RX 9070 models.
The upshot is this: going by those internal tests from AMD – add skepticism with all this, meaning the benchmarks, and also MLID’s own theories – Team Red was targeting a slight win for the RX 9070 XT over the RTX 4080 Founders Edition (to the tune of 3% or so).
MLID then took that level of estimated performance and overlaid it on a graph of benchmarks (a 17-game average) from Hardware Unboxed that includes the RTX 5080. From this, we see that in theory, the RX 9070 XT is within 10% of the RTX 5080 for rasterized (non-ray tracing) performance at 4K resolution.
On top of that, the YouTuber added in the mentioned napkin maths approximations of RTX 5070 performance, which is that the vanilla RTX 5070 is likely to come in at about 20% faster than Nvidia’s RTX 4070 (so in the ballpark of the RTX 4070 Ti). And that the RTX 5070 Ti is likely to be a rather minor generational uplift, and maybe only slightly faster than the RTX 4070 Ti Super.
Granted, that adds in a good deal of uncertainty, and ifs-and-buts, though it is based on sound enough reasoning. (Namely the uplifts we’ve seen for the RTX 5090 and 5080, on average – a strong flavor of the architectural gains for Blackwell, in other words – and then the relative specs of the new RTX 5070 models versus their predecessors).
RTX 5070 performance may not pan out like this, but if it roughly does, MLID theorizes that the RX 9070 XT (based on those internal AMD benchmarks) could potentially be 15% faster than the RTX 5070 Ti. And that the RX 9070 versus the RTX 5070 could see a win for AMD, too, more to the tune of 10%, but still, a marked victory.
Analysis: Performance means little without price
Right, so is AMD set to own the GPU mid-range this year? Well, as I’ve already said a couple of times – but it bears another mention just to underline – a lot of this is up in the air theorizing, albeit workings-out that make sense to me. MLID lays some heavy caveats on all this himself, although the YouTuber does assert that he’s confident enough in these predictions on the whole.
We should bear in mind that the graphs used (from Hardware Unboxed) are just straight rasterized performance. Although MLID also notes he’s confident AMD has almost caught up to Nvidia with ray tracing in this generation, but another major piece of the puzzle is DLSS 4 and Team Green’s new frame generation. The latter MFG feature, and other improvements in DLSS 4, are actually huge – and that shouldn’t be underestimated. We don’t yet know how FSR 4, AMD’s rival next-gen tech, will shake out, and so that remains a fairly weighty question mark here.
Another critical point here is that it’s all very well analyzing (potential) relative performance levels in a theoretical exercise like this, but even if this proves correct as to the comparative frame rates we’ll get from the RX 9070 versus RTX 5070 models, there’s AMD’s pricing to consider. We know the rough value proposition of the RTX 5070 flavors as we have the MSRPs, but we don’t with the RDNA 4 graphics cards.
My worry, then, is that AMD will be calculating where to pitch RX 9070 asking prices based on the Nvidia RTX 5070 reviews when they arrive in February (well, if Team Green sticks to its promised launch timeframe for these mid-range graphics cards). It’s certainly been rumored that AMD is still very much weighing up pricing, and the question then becomes: how much does Team Red want to take Nvidia down in the mid-range space?
If that’s a strong motive here, AMD might come in with really competitive MSRPs for the RX 9070 models. But, if maximizing profits and return is higher up the priority list for RDNA 4, then we could get weightier than rumored asking prices.
Who knows, is really the point, and the RX 9070 will only be an RTX 5070 killer – assuming MLID’s napkin scribbling and GPU hypothesizing is in the right ballpark – if AMD prices it to be an RTX 5070 killer. Hopefully that’s the intent, and MLID suggests $499 and $649 (US) as possible price tags for a suitably aggressive move with the RX 9070 and its XT sibling respectively.
Previously, there were hopes of a sub-$500 price for the RX 9070, but if performance does shape up anything like as suggested here, there’s no reason AMD would need to dip lower than the mentioned $499. And again, this comes back to my worry that AMD might feel free to just push pricing harder than originally intended, perhaps, if the RX 9070 models are outmuscling the RTX 5070s in this vein.
