The price of Bitcoin (BTC -0.20%) has surged 24% over the past month, pushing its value back over $100,000 for the first time since February. Investors are once again regaining their optimism in the world’s leading cryptocurrency, but is it a good time to buy?
Here’s why Bitcoin’s price is jumping higher again and why it might be better to wait out the current wave until the dust has settled on tariffs and their potential impact on the economy.
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Why investors are getting back on board with Bitcoin
Bitcoin fell in step with plummeting stock prices after President Trump announced a slew of tariffs on imported goods. That caused Bitcoin to drop to around $76,000 in early April.
But over the past few weeks, investors have reassessed their sell-off sentiment and have been buying up equities and cryptocurrencies again. The hope is that the Trump administration will work out trade deals with countries before they cause serious pain to the U.S. economy.
For example, the administration announced some details about a new trade deal with the U.K. recently, which was the main reason why Bitcoin’s value jumped back over $100,000. Some of the details include a lower 10% tariff for the first 100,000 vehicles imported to the U.S. — as opposed to 25% — and a tariff exemption on steel and aluminum.
Plus, China and the U.S. have recently agreed to ratchet down their trade war. The tariffs on Chinese imports will fall from 145% to 30% for 90 days while a trade deal gets hammered out. China, in turn, will lower its tariffs from 125% to 10%.
Bitcoin isn’t directly impacted by tariffs, but many investors have been buying and selling cryptocurrencies based on tariff news. Currently, it appears some Bitcoin investors believe the trade war with China will get settled and other tariff deals will be made before they hurt the economy.
Bitcoin’s surge of optimism may be premature
I think there are some legitimate reasons to be optimistic about Bitcoin’s future. The cryptocurrency has gained significant institutional adoption recently with the launch of Bitcoin ETFs last year. The Trump administration has also taken a lighter regulatory approach to cryptocurrency and announced a strategic Bitcoin reserve just a few months ago.
All of these things have been positive moves for the long-term viability of Bitcoin as an investment. But there’s bound to be far more volatility in the short term because of the general uncertainty from tariffs and the economy.
For one, a trade deal between the U.S. and China has not been finalized. Imports from China will still incur a significant 30% tariff and could be higher or lower by the end of the negotiations, depending on how the trade talks play out.
Even if a deal gets worked out over the next three months, the Trump administration has shown it doesn’t mind throwing a wrench into previously established economic norms. That’s bad for the price of Bitcoin because investors tend to respond strongly to any negative economic news — just as they did with the initial tariff announcements.
How much will tariffs impact the economy?
What’s more, even if significant trade deals are made with countries, higher consumer prices because of import tariffs could still impact the economy. For example, after some tariff exemptions were made for autos, Ford recently said prices will increase on three of its models by as much as $2,000 because of tariffs.
The main point here is that there’s still a huge question mark when it comes to how much tariffs will impact the economy. Bitcoin investors have chosen to be optimistic on some of the positive news, but over the coming months, we’ll learn more about how the economy is really doing.
If you’re interested in owning Bitcoin, it’s better to wait until all the trade deals are made with countries. Waiting a few months will likely give you a much better view of whether the Trump administration is kneecapping the economy with bad policy, or if the trade fiasco has been smoothed out.
With the stock market and Bitcoin’s price moving significantly based on near-daily tariff news, buying now — with Bitcoin flirting with its all-time high — looks like a bad move.
Chris Neiger has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Bitcoin. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
