Stocks are still moving in after-hours trading, but let’s look back at the day’s biggest market movers and trading takeaways. This is Asking for a Trend with Josh Lipton, where he is joined by leading market experts and several Yahoo Finance senior reporters to break down the past trading day.
BTC Inc. CEO David Bailey comes onto the program to talk about how he envisions the direction of the crypto space moving under a second Trump administration.
Yahoo Finance markets reporter Jared Blikre dissects the three biggest trading takeaways for the day: the rotations in the Magnificent Seven tech stocks, the anticipation for earnings season, and whether the recession indicator “Sahm Rule” could be triggered soon.
For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here.
This post was written by Luke Carberry Mogan.
Video Transcript
Hello and welcome to ask me for a trend.
I’m Josh Lipton for the next half hour.
We’re going to be breaking down the trends of today that will move stocks tomorrow.
There is a lot to keep track of.
So we’re focusing on what you need to know to get ahead of the curve.
Here are some of the trends.
We’re going to be diving into Biden doubling down the president pushing back on calls to leave the 2024 race today as lawmakers return to Capitol Hill, a candidate change could spike market uncertainty of course.
But in the near term investors have a slew of economic data and earnings results at the front of their minds.
Plus Bitcoin find to say about $55,000 in the model day of trading.
Significant selling pressure continues to mount against the Cryptocurrency as the German government offloads its holdings and creditors await the latest moves from the Mount gox bankruptcy state and a cooling labor market has meant workers are less likely to take risks by voluntarily leaving for new roles.
But that does not mean the employees who are staying put are feeling fulfilled.
We’re taking a closer look at the trends at play in the workplace.
Bitcoin continues to sink today but crypto digital asset products are seeing inflows for the first time actually in the weeks for more on the Cryptocurrency landscape, we’re now bringing in David Bailey.
He is CEO of BT C INC, an organizer at the Bitcoin Conference.
David.
It is good to see you.
So, you know, you think about this year, David, you know, Bitcoin, of course, you got that strong first quarter, everybody uh very excited about those new spot, Bitcoin ETS now lately, David, you know, not as much.
I, I, you know, first and foremost, I is it is it Mount Gox, is that the primary issue here, David that’s been causing some selling pressure.
Well, first off, Josh, thank you for having me on the show.
And I have to say investors are still very excited about uh the Bitcoin ETF.
Uh Thank God we have Bitcoin ETF S because it’s been a brutal week of selling from the German government and from, and uh Mount Gox bankruptcy claims finally paying out after 10 years.
And so those ETF S are actually absorbing a lot of the liquidity blow that’s happening right now.
So, um we’re about two thirds of the way through uh the German government just dumping their Bitcoin.
Uh and we’re eager to see it concluded, but I think that will wrap up probably next week.
What would you see, you know, David, you look at the potential kind of near to intermediate term catalysts.
You know, what would you be looking for?
Is it um you know, a, a Dovish fed a rate cut or two, would that help?
You know, I think there’s probably two major catalysts that are driving the Bitcoin action right now.
First off, we just had a Bitcoin housing that occurred in April.
Um historically, every Bitcoin housing has caused a supply shock with Bitcoin.
And so the the these are kind of the precursors to what makes the price of Bitcoin dramatically rise over, you know, the next two years.
And so a lot of people in our industry are very eagerly watching that, that play out it takes time for the supply shock to really bake into the market dynamics.
Um And then the second kind of new catalyst I’d say is the political um environment for Bitcoin.
Uh Just today, uh details were released about the RN C’s official platform uh as it relates to Bitcoin and crypto.
And for the first time ever, Bitcoin is one of the key components of a, a major political party um platform.
So uh I think that there’s a lot of positive developments to come on the on the political and geopolitical side that are really kind of brand new catalysts for our industry and just let’s stick with politics, David, because mine are saying is you actually met uh former president uh Trump.
I’m just curious how that came about David.
What do you guys talk about?
Yeah, we, we talked to Bitcoin mining, we talked how Bitcoin is aligned with the president’s agenda for energy independence, for energy abundance, for America first.
Um to really dominate what’s a, a strategic asset of the United States.
So the president is, is very aligned with the Bitcoin industry and seize the opportunity that Bitcoin offers the United States and, and also the risk, you know, uh a lack of action um would bring about as well.
So, uh it was a very uh fruitful conversation.
Uh It’s also where, you know, the president and his, his classic style coined the term.
Uh We want Bitcoin made in America.
So, um it was, it was a very successful, it’s interesting, David because you, you had, as you’re pointing out rightfully, I mean, you’re seeing this, I mean, crypto has become an issue in this election and it’s interesting to see Trump uh positioning himself as an ally of the crypto community.
Do you think that works, David?
Do you think he’ll win over the crypto community?
Yeah, absolutely.
It’s already happening.
You know, there are 70 million people that own Bitcoin or crypto uh in the United States and there’s an old political adage that people vote their pocketbook.
Now, digital assets.
Bitcoin is people’s pocketbook.
And so when they’re making an analysis of who they’re going to vote for, there’s a lot of single issue voters that their number one priority is what’s going to be good for the, the value of my portfolio.
And so when you look at the two candidates right now, uh Trump has done a really amazing job at, at um making himself stand out as really the only candidate to pick.
So, uh you know, we’ve, we are trying to raise $100 million for the president’s re-election effort.
Um and we’re trying to turn out 5 million votes, swing votes uh in this upcoming election.
And so I think, you know, Bitcoin is really having its political moment.
David.
I’m also curious, I wanna get you out on this when you talk to your friends and family and maybe they don’t own Bitcoin and they’re thinking about it.
Um What do you tell them?
What, what’s the reason you say buy Bitcoin?
Do you say David Store of value?
Do you say me in exchange?
What, what’s the story you tell them?
You know, it’s, it’s a little bit of all of it.
I think, you know, you, you kind of cater the message of Bitcoin to uh who the buyer is.
You know, there’s different things that intrigue people about the technology.
Um You know, personally, I think what’s, what’s most exciting is like we, we live in a, in a world that’s very fractured.
Our monetary system is very fractured globally.
Bitcoin represents a fresh start, the ability to rebuild.
Um uh and rearchitect our monetary system for the world on a clean infrastructure.
And so uh when I, when I look at Bitcoin, I I make the case the of Bitcoin as as kind of the primary asset of a of a future monetary system.
And you know it at fundamentally it’s the number go up story.
It’s like what is one Bitcoin theoretically worth if Bitcoin fulfills its potential as, as you know, the the the new monetary system, David, it was great to have you on the show.
Thanks for making time for us.
Yeah, Josh, thank you for having me on Yahoo.
Finance’s, Jared Blick joins us now with more on the trading day takeaways, Jared.
Well, since the mag seven is the entire market, I’m noticing some rotation in the mag seven and that is underway and let me explain.
I’m gonna show you first our mega cap heat map here.
Uh Not this, I’ll pull that up.
And what we can see is a rotating cast of characters, not all green, not all red.
In fact, Apple today was the only stock only member of this group, at least of the ones on the left that closed at a record high.
You can see NVIDIA here coming back in the for uh but NVIDIA hasn’t made a record high in probably about two weeks.
Now, let me just show the year to date chart there and you can see it’s been kind of going sideways here and I’d bring up the fact that last year NVIDIA was going sideways for most of the year, about half of it.
So this is something that happens.
But meanwhile, when NVIDIA was kind of kind of taking a back seat, guess who made record highs.
Last week it was alphabet Amazon Microsoft.
Uh I believe meta was in there too.
So you’re not seeing that in Tesla, but even Tesla had its run in the sun.
So Tesla is pretty far away from a yeah, Tesla is pretty far away from a record high, but here’s a five year chart finally getting to some interesting levels here.
Yeah, and now let’s stick with Tech Jared because you on this very show.
I’ve been also talking to us about the drama, the Saga chips versus software.
Where are we there?
Well, I’ll tell you where we are chips today, are beating software today, but it this is another aspect of the rotation that’s going on.
It’s a healthy part of the market or health, healthy aspect of the market.
You can see NVIDIA there.
That’s a leader.
Obviously that’s up almost 2% but a BGO Broadcom up 2.5% just see a lot of performance.
And then you contrast that from the view that we get when we look at software.
Well, that’s another story, but I’ll tell you what you look at the year to date totals.
You’re gonna see lots of green on the screen a little bit of red, very similar situation for the semiconductors.
Maybe a little bit less red, maybe a little bit more green.
But that’s what you want to see.
And it’s this rotation that I’m talking about isn’t limited to tech.
Now.
We haven’t seen like financials and industrials really perk up recently.
But that’s what they did last year when the, when the mag seven finally took a back seat, they stepped up.
So that’s what we want to see is it happen this time?
All right, Jared Blicker.
Take away point number two, you bet.
Are we only on number two right now?
All right.
Uh, I’ll go a little faster record earnings expectations.
Now, here’s a very simple chart.
This goes back to, uh, kind of December 2021 S and P 500 earnings expectations.
They are at a record now, $259 per share.
That’s the for 12 month target there.
And what’s interesting, you can see this bottomed right around the change of the new year at the beginning of the last year.
But stocks actually bottomed in October.
This is for lift looking.
You can probably ship this forward three or six months.
So what this is telling me is there’s still gas in the tank for earnings to run.
And when you look at this is this all, this is all big tech, this is all mag seven.
You know, it’s not necessarily, uh, there’s a lot more going on in here.
Um I was just showing some heat maps with the other mag seven.
I do expect some of these stocks, some of these other groups to perk up.
But who’s to say when that’s gonna happen?
What I am encouraged by is that we’re seeing a breadth expansion in earnings expectations and let me break that down.
So if you take all the components of the eight of the S and P 500/80 percent of them have experienced earnings revision to the upside over the three months.
So that’s all gas in the tank for the next three months.
All right, Jerry Blucker final takeaway.
Let’s get to it.
Yes.
All right.
Some rule close to being triggered, that is a recession rule.
And so I did the back, I’m not gonna go over the exact formula.
But if unemployment takes up to 4.2% the next month or the month after, so we’re talking about the July readings and the August readings that could green light the fed cutting rates in September and that is ahead of an election year or ahead of an, but this is such good cover that the fed could probably get away with that.
And I would expect if the rule does trigger.
I think people say Jay Powell, why are you not cutting already?
And some people are already doing that quickly.
Jared astute viewers would ask you, how does the yield curve inversion compare here, which, which can also signal recession yield.
OK.
So the so rule is immediate when you, when you see the, so rule trigger, you are at the beginning of the recession, the yield curve inversion doesn’t take place for maybe a year up to two years.
And by the way, the yield curve has been inverted two years, I think that’s a record.
So hasn’t really uh fired off, just the yield curve hasn’t fired off the recession.
The typical way we’re that we’re looking for.
But the Psalm rule could show us that we’re in it in a month, chips mag sevens rule.
It’s all there.
Thank you, buddy.
Appreciate it coming up.
The great resignation may be behind us.
But what does that mean for companies as more workers voluntarily stay put more asking for a trend on the other side?
First, we saw the great resignation.
Now workers are staying put.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, jolts report, the number of quits was down 500,000 in May compared to a year ago.
The quits rate typically serves a signal for how willing workers are to test the labor market waters and voluntarily making the leap to a new role.
Joining me now is Jessica Kriegel, chief scientist of Workplace Culture at Culture Partners, Jessica.
It is good to see you and you know, on this trend, Jessica, there was this this very good smart article in in the journal which talked about how, uh, increasingly people feel stuck in their jobs.
You know, the labor markets cooling, uh, declining turnover, fewer internal moves.
People feel stuck if viewers are watching this Jessica and they feel stuck.
Um, any advice for them, Jessica, what, what could they do?
What should they do?
Well, the music is stopping and in the game of musical chairs, you want to have a seat, which is why we’re seeing the quip rates uh slow down because ultimately, we have to be able to pay our rent and pay our mortgage and the opportunities are not as out there as they used to be.
So, what does that mean for you to answer your question?
If your listener is feeling stuck?
I mean, you may be stuck.
Acceptance is perhaps the first step in allowing yourself to be ok with being stuck because sometimes that is the nature of the cycle that we’re in and, and that’s where you are.
There’s also something that you can do as an employee when it comes to advocating for yourself.
If you’re not being paid fair wages, you can show your value to your manager and ask for that increase.
If the culture on your team doesn’t feel very good, you can influence the culture yourself.
We’re all co creating culture together.
This isn’t just a CEO L thing.
So you can take initiative to make that better internally.
But the reality is some people are stuck and we might just have to be ok with that.
Are there all, you know, Jessica, I would also think, um, are there moves though, an employer can make, you know, an employer doesn’t want people feeling stuck?
I mean, that just leads to people feeling disengaged.
I mean, are there things employers could do?
Can they get more creative, you know, can they, you know, have people move to different cities or, you know, experiment on different teams?
Yeah, I mean, I think all of those kind of perks and benefits are things that CEO S are trying right now.
But if you want to get to the core of a culture of accountability where people are taking initiative, where they’re driving results and they’re passionate about it.
You have to think about how people are, what they believe in the workplace, right?
So many leaders are focusing on what can we do?
Maybe we move people, maybe we let them work from home, maybe we give them this benefit.
But what is it that they believe about the value that they’re creating their importance in the workplace, whether or not they’re on a team that really cares about what you’re doing.
And the way that you influence beliefs at work is through the experiences that you core for each other.
So I would dig deeper as a leader if I were trying to motivate my employees and think about the employee experience that they’re having every single day and what experiences I can improve to drive the right belief so that they really care.
Because if I’m a CEO, I want a team of people who deeply care if I wanna drive shareholder value.
Are there, there may be some employers, Jessica, I’m just, you know, spitballing here who are listening and saying, you know, the economy is slowing, you can see that in all kinds of data.
Now the labor market is cooling frankly.
You know, they may say you should just be thankful you have a job.
Is that, is that the right attitude, the wrong attitude, how do you think about it?
I mean, it’s not the attitude that I would want to have as a CEO but it’s not necessarily ineffective, right?
I mean, at time, that is the problem with these economic cycles is that we invest in people when we can and then we divest when we can.
And so if you have short term thinking and you’re just trying to get to the end of the quarter, end of the year, then yeah, let people be, let them be, I mean, sometimes leaders actually do this intentionally that their employees will go, they want to increase attrition and you’re seeing also increased layoffs right now.
So, I mean, that is because people are trying to weed out all of the people who aren’t putting in that extra effort as an employee show value, show your worth and you’ll be able to hold on to that job.
A little bit longer, big important trend in theme, Jessica.
Thank you for helping us walk through it.
Appreciate it.
Thanks for having me and coming up earning season kicks off later this week and expectations sky high.
We’re gonna take a look next in our chart of the day today.
The S and P 500 hit its 35th record close this year and earning season set to kick off later this week.
Expectations are also near all time highs.
Now, our finances, Julie Hyman joins you now with a closer look.
Yeah, with our chart of the day here, which comes to us courtesy of Bloomberg that looked at some of this data.
So, you know, we have seen these record close as one after the other there.
You earlier talked about it as a very slow sort of melt up.
But I think Ed Yard Denny is the one who talked about that.
And indeed, that’s what it felt like here.
It’s not today.
The gain in the S and P 500 was only 1/10 of 1%.
But those little gains day by day is a steady melt upward that has caused all of these record highs.
Now, it has had and at the same time that we have seen profit expectations ratchet up and up and up.
In recent quarters, those profit expectations were a little more muted, perhaps easier to beat.
That might be a higher bar.
Once we start getting companies reporting in earnest starting this Friday with the big banks.
And so this is one of the reasons that some strategists have been pointing to as perhaps a cause for caution, Mike Wilson, who’s been a long time, uh cautious strategist on Wall Street over at Morgan Stanley had talked about a potential pullback that we might see as a result of this.
Adam Turnquist of LP L who we talked to earlier today said it’s possible in the short term that we would see a pullback.
But then we also talked to Barbara Duran of BD eight and she is still pretty optimistic here.
And at some point, there’s going to be a pull back.
We know that and what we’ve seen so far a year to date though, it’s been shallow and I think that’s what’s going to happen here because the underlying fundamentals are positive, the economy is slowing down.
People are glad to see that it means the fed, you know, is restrictive and they will admit that and that’s working.
So there you hear Barbara saying, even if there is a pullback, it’s not gonna be a dramatic one.
So even though you’ve got perhaps stocks getting a little the the rally that we have seen getting a little bit long in the tooth and Josh, there are a lot of reasons for that, that people appointed to as well, that or underlying reasons why it might not last, including the lack of breath in the market, but you still have some optimism out there and some optimism.
Julie, we’ve been talking to some strategists and they’ll talk earnings, they’ll also talk about how, you know, increasingly some investors thinking, you know, what we get this weaker than expected economic data.
Ok.
They think maybe it just means J Powell cuts a as long as it’s not too weak.
I think that’s really the caveat here is that it has to be in this sort of delicate middle zone, right?
I mean, but to your point, you know, folks like John Stolas over at Oppenheimer raised his forecast for the S and P 500 to 5900.
So we are still getting that phenomenon of the forecast continuing to go higher even as there are, you know, warning signs that others are flagging at least in the short term.
But for the full year, there’s still a lot of optimism out there for sure.
Thank you Julie.
And that is a wrap on today’s ask for a trend.
Be sure to come back tomorrow at 4:30 p.m. Eastern for all of the latest market.
Moving stories affecting your wallet.
Have a great night.
