Back in March 2022 Patently Apple posed a report titled “Famed Apple Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Denies Rumors that he’s left Tianfeng International Securities, but …” The report was questioning why TFI wasn’t publicly publishing Ming-Chi Kuo’s Apple Research any longer on their website, which had been the case for many years. No official statement by either TFI Securities or Kuo was ever made which understandably led to speculation.
A new article posted by the Chinese-language financial newspaper ‘Commercial Times’ on August 04 openly challenged Ming-Chi Kuo’s position at TFI Securities. The article presented Ming-Chi Kuo as both “Guo Mingqi” and “Guo Mingxi.”
The report stated (in translation) that “After investigation, Guo Mingqi is no longer an analyst in Tianfeng [TFI Securities], so he can’t produce a text report, you can only write something on your own Twitter, the company welcomes your company to cite any official report to report information about the company, but please do not reprint any personal network articles.”
Guo Mingxi, who gave the impression of “Apple analysts” to the outside world, was first known in local securities companies for being familiar with the Taiwan supply chain, and even predicted the specifications and shipment quantity, coinciding with the high-speed growth period of smart phones.” You could read more of that report here.
Both TFI Securities and Ming-Chi Kuo are of course at fault for not spelling out the reasoning behind Ming-Chi Kuo’s Apple Research disappearing from TFI Securities normal research announcements page and Kuo being restricting his research reporting to his Twitter account.
To prove that TFI Securities still employs Ming-Chi Kuo, or Guo Mingxi as he’s formally known as by TFI Securities, the company officially published Kuo’s latest “Apple Research” yesterday on their usual Research page regarding Apple’s AR/MR Headset. The report states the following:
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- The market has the highest expectations for AR/MR headset among Apple’s new products in 2023. However, this investment theme has not become a clear market consensus due to doubts about innovative user experience and low shipments of less than 1.5 million units in 2023.
- Apple may announce the AR/MR headset as soon as January 2023. This media event is expected to reduce investors’ concerns about innovative user experience and low shipments in 2023 and enhance their confidence in the headset’s outlook.
- Apple AR/MR headset will be the next revolutionary consumer electronics product after iPhone. Suppose Apple AR/MR headset’s rapid growth shipments in the next years can become market consensus. In that case, investors should pay more attention to Apple and AR/MR suppliers that meet the following criteria: 1) all-new specification, 2) specification upgrade, and 3) volume increase.
The market has the highest expectations for AR/MR headset among Apple’s new products in 2023. However, this investment theme has not become a clear market consensus due to doubts about innovative user experience and low shipments of less than 1.5 million units in 2023.
- The success of the epoch-making consumer electronics in the past (such as the iPhone, Wii, etc.) was because they provided innovative experiences that people could not imagine before these products were announced/released. Therefore, it is reasonable for most investors to have doubts about Apple AR/MR’s user scenarios currently.
- The market expects Apple AR/MR headsets to be priced at $2,000–$2,500 or higher and believes it will affect shipments.
- Apple’s first-generation AR/MR headset focuses on proving if the market demand exists rather than on price/shipment. If the market demand exists, the selling price will gradually decrease, boosting rapid shipment growth with improved production, technology, and cost.
Apple may announce the AR/MR headset as soon as January 2023. This media event is expected to reduce investors’ concerns about innovative user experience and low shipments in 2023 and enhance their confidence in the headset’s outlook.
- It’s expected that user scenarios, software/service/development ecosystem, and hardware specification details will be the three key points of the announcement.
- If Apple AR/MR headset’s user scenarios can convince investors, investors will believe that the headset will enter a period of rapid growth in the next few years and will be less concerned about low shipments in 2023.
- If the rapid shipment growth of Apple’s AR/MR headset in the next few years can form a market consensus, the stocks of Apple and the AR/MR headset supply chain will be re-rated, and the stock price will be favorable.
Apple AR/MR headset will be the next revolutionary consumer electronics product after iPhone. Suppose Apple AR/MR headset’s rapid growth shipments in the next years can become market consensus. In that case, investors should pay more attention to Apple and AR/MR suppliers that meet the following criteria: 1) all-new specification, 2) specification upgrade, and 3) volume increase.
- Among the all-new specifications, eye-ball tracking is the most representative. There are almost no eye-ball tracking applications in existing consumer electronics.
- In terms of specification upgrades (compared with existing Apple products), the relevant components worthy of attention include mechanical components (requiring wearing comfort), displays (providing an excellent immersive experience), and thermal-related components (maintaining high-speed computing and wearing comfort), etc.
- The AR/MR headset shares many components with Apple’s existing products, but the use of the AR/MR headset has increased significantly, including with processors, optical modules (RGB cameras, eye-ball tracking, 3D sensing), and flexible PCB, etc.
Stock for actions: Apple’s AR/MR headset media event will enhance market’s confidence in the headset’s outlook. Investors should pay more attention to Apple and AR/MR suppliers that meet the following criteria: 1) all-new specification, 2) specification upgrade, and 3) volume increase.
Risk: New product shipment delays or lower-than-expected demand.
Whether Kuo’s (Gou Mingxi’s) original Apple Research will be officially returning to TFI Securities Research announcement page on a consistent basis is unknown at this time. Was this a one-off release to restore Kuo’s credibility with the media? Only time will tell.
