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Bitcoin has been navigating in a narrow corridor for weeks, between $93,300 and $98,500. A precarious, almost hypnotic balance, where every oscillation seems to hold its breath. Traders are scrutinizing the charts, the indicators are flashing silently. But this stagnation is just an illusion. Beneath the surface, the numbers whisper a different truth: the consolidation could soon shatter. The burning question: how long will this calm before the storm last?
How long will the consolidation last?
Since February 5, Bitcoin has been oscillating between $93,300 and $98,500, like a caged beast. For Tyler Durden, an influential analyst, this stagnation hides a duel between two scenarios. “It needs to turn orange this week, otherwise it will break out of the range and return towards $74,000,” he warns. The orange line? This symbolic threshold at $98,000, a technical barrier to cross to confirm a bullish trend. Without this break, the risk of a drop towards $74,000 looms.
Meanwhile, Jelle, an independent analyst, sees a bullish flag on the weekly chart. A structure that, according to him, remains solid as long as Bitcoin maintains support at $93,000.
“The consolidation should end by the end of February,” he suggests. A breakout of the flag would then propel the price towards $140,000, according to his projections. Two weeks. That is the timeframe he grants the market to emerge from its stupor.
Mark Cullen, for his part, insists on the average range at $96,000, a key level corresponding to the weekly opening.
For him, the return to this pivot would be a strong signal. “Without recovering this threshold, volatility could intensify,” he notes. A battle between buyers and sellers, where every dollar gained or lost counts doubly.
The consolidation of Bitcoin’s price is coming to an end
The Bollinger Bands, a core volatility indicator, send a clear message: the current tightening is a sign of an imminent explosion.
The daily bandwidth, today at an “extremely oversold” level, recalls past episodes. In November 2024, a similar tightening preceded a surge of 46%. In January 2024, Bitcoin soared by 94% in six weeks. Will history repeat itself?
The numbers speak for themselves. Currently, the width of the bands is narrower than in November 2024 when Bitcoin was valued at $68,000.
A rare technical setup, often compared to a compressed spring. Once released, the movement could be violent. Optimists are betting on a breakout to the upside, aiming for $140,000. The more cautious are watching for a break of supports, with $74,000 in their sights.
But beware: indicators are not oracles. While the Bollinger Bands suggest an imminent break, the macroeconomic context – regulation, institutional adoption, geopolitical news – remains unpredictable. Bitcoin has always been able to surprise. Its next leap, whether bullish or bearish, will depend on its ability to tame these conflicting forces. After all, it is an asset to analyze, not to fear, as pointed out by the head of the Czech bank.
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Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
