The price of Bitcoin exceeds $84,000 at the opening of Wall Street on March 19, as the markets prepare for the Federal Reserve‘s decision regarding interest rates.
Investors closely watch the statements of Chairman Jerome Powell at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, influenced by the trend of inflation and U.S. tariff policies.
The price of Bitcoin between weak supports and risk factors
Data from TradingView indicates that Bitcoin reached a local high of 84,358 dollars on Bitstamp.
However, the markets remain tense before the Fed’s decision, with expectations that rates will remain unchanged at least until June, according to the FedWatch tool by CME Group.
More than the decision on rates, investors fear the tone of Powell’s statements. The U.S. stock market has experienced a significant decline since the beginning of the year, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index down 4% and 8.7%, respectively.
Bitcoin, although still above 80,000 dollars, has recorded a decline of 10% compared to the initial value of 2024.
According to analysts at QCP Capital, the FOMC meeting will likely not make changes to the rates, but expectations on growth and inflation will be closely monitored to identify any signs of change.
Despite the support around 80,000 dollars, the situation of Bitcoin appears uncertain due to macroeconomic weaknesses. QCP Capital has highlighted that, in the short term, it is difficult to identify factors that could push the price of BTC. upwards.
However, a positive signal comes from U.S. retail investors, who have significantly increased their exposure to the bull markets.
The net inflow into Nasdaq 100 securities has reached 0.1% of the market capitalization, the highest value of the past year.
Furthermore, according to JPMorgan, retail investor sentiment has reached record levels, even surpassing those of the 2021 “meme stock” frenzy. Stocks like Tesla and Nvidia are among the most purchased by small investors.
Future scenarios for Bitcoin: possible movements between 76,000 and 87,000 dollars
Market analysts evaluate several possible trajectories for the price of Bitcoin based on the reactions that will follow the meeting of the Federal Reserve.
According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin shows a consolidation pattern, with supports between 78,000 and 80,700 dollars suggesting a possible push towards 87,000 dollars.
These levels refer to the so-called “gaps” in the Bitcoin futures market on CME, which often act as attractors for the short-term price.
Keith Alan, co-founder of Material Indicators, believes that a dovish tone from Powell could have a positive impact.
In case of reassuring statements, Bitcoin could surpass both the 200-day moving average ($84,995) and the 21-day moving average ($84,350), thus avoiding the dreaded “death cross”, a technical signal associated with possible declines.
On the other hand, a negative market reaction to the Fed meeting could lead BTC to retest the support at 76,000 dollars, reached in previous months.
The next direction of Bitcoin will largely depend on the monetary policy of the Fed and the reactions of investors.
With a stock market in distress and a low risk appetite, BTC faces a critical moment for its short-term trend.
The potential surpassing of the 84,000 dollar threshold could indicate a broader recovery, while a correction might bring Bitcoin back towards 76,000 dollars.
Investors must remain cautious, as market movements remain highly volatile and influenced by Fed statements and global macroeconomic conditions.
