NASHVILLE, TN – Donald Trump during his speech at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference in Nashville, TN. … [+]
Just a day after being sworn in as president, Donald Trump kept one of his first promises made to the Bitcoin community by signing a full and unconditional pardon for Ross Ulbricht, a bitcoin folk hero and former Silk Road operator. Prediction markets have had an impressive success rate for accurately predicting the outcome of political, social, and sporting events, often surpassing traditional polls and expert analyses. Now investors are now shifting their attention to what prediction markets suggest about Trump’s other Bitcoin promises.
Traditional polling is going the way of the fax machine, being gradually supplanted by prediction markets like Polymarket. A recent example were the results of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where Polymarket’s markets augured Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the race shortly after the June 27 debate, weeks before his official exit.
Given Polymarket’s knack for accuracy, attention is now turning to gauging the early actions of Trump’s crucial first months in office. The first of many promises made by Trump to the Bitcoin community was kept yesterday when he issued a pardon for Ross Ulbritch. Ulbritch’s pardon came hours after Polymarket had surged to 95% probability following signals from key administration figures.
The current market odds place a 30% probability on Trump establishing a national Bitcoin reserve within his first 100 days — a cornerstone promise involving law enforcement retaining seized bitcoin instead of auctioning it. Furthermore, market odds of the U.S. establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve during 2025 are at 60%.
Other Bitcoin-related prediction markets like the odds of the State of Texas signing the Bitcoin Reserve Act in 2025 are at 43%. For context, seven U.S. States have introduced legislation or proposals to create a bitcoin reserve at a state level. These are Texas, Alabama, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, Ohio, and North Dakota. The odds of a U.S. state approving a bitcoin reserve before March 2025 are at 18%.
However, it’s important to note that prediction markets can also get things wrong. For context, Polymarket odds of a Trump cryptocurrency executive order on day 1 were at 56% on inauguration day, and crashed to 0% during his first day in office as no cryptocurrency executive order was signed.
As the Trump administration works its way through the first 100 days, prediction markets and pollsters will be put to the test, and the results will speak for themselves. I believe prediction markets will become increasingly more accurate and efficient over time, as more participants look to express their views and back their conviction with their wallets.
In the era of prediction markets, investors can now benefit from accessing market intelligence data from venues like Polymarket for free. In the past, this type of market intelligence information was only available to wealthy investors willing to pay for market surveys and polls. More information can lead to better decisions. Over time, this evolution should level the playing field between large and small investors in terms of access to market data.
