Topline
U.S. markets were steady Monday morning following the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump over the weekend, in contrast to soaring prices for Trump Media and cryptocurrency tokens like Bitcoin as investors speculate the attack might improve Trump’s chances of winning reelection.
Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump was rushed offstage during a rally … [+]
Key Facts
U.S. stock futures hardly moved after Trump was shot in the ear during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania on Saturday, with Dow futures climbing 0.58%, S&P 500 futures 0.43% and Nasdaq futures 0.5% before markets opened early Monday morning.
The attempt on Trump’s life sparked uncertainty in global markets, however, with Europe-wide Stoxx 600 down 0.29%, Germany’s Dax index down 0.24%, France’s CAC 40 down 0.51% and Britain’s flagship FTSE 100 down 0.29%.
Market reactions were more mixed in Asia Pacific—where China also reported lackluster GDP data—with Japanese markets closed for a public holiday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index down 1.52% and the Shanghai Composite largely flat at market close.
Meanwhile the price of Bitcoin jumped to more than $63,000 on Monday, an increase of nearly 5% from the day before and a two-week high for the world’s largest cryptocurrency.
The majority of Bitcoin’s nearly 14% gain on the week came after the assassination attempt on Trump and the token’s rise bucks a broad downwards trend for the digital asset, which slumped to a four-month low in early July amid uncertainty over potential selloffs from the German government and creditors of bankrupt crypto exchange Mt. Gox, which in July started to repay around $9 billion worth of recovered tokens stolen from it before declaring bankruptcy in 2014.
Prices for other popular digital assets also soared following the attempt on Trump’s life, with Ether, Binance’s BNB, Solana’s Sol and Dogecoin all up between 4% and 6% from the day before at around 4:30 a.m. EST Monday and weekly climbs of between 11% and 17%.
What To Watch For
Shares in Trump Media & Technology Group surged more than 50% during premarket trading on Monday. Shares in the company, the majority of which are owned by Trump, have been volatile since debuting on the stock market earlier this year and responded to developments surrounding the former president including his criminal convictions and trials. The company owns Truth Social, an alternative social media platform used and hyped by Trump after he was barred from Twitter, now X.
Why Are Crypto Markets Responding To Trump?
While crypto markets are notoriously volatile and can often defy rational explanation, it is sometimes possible to discern trends.Though Trump has historically been skeptical of the crypto industry—he said he was “not a fan” of cryptocurrencies in 2019, dismissed assets like bitcoin as highly volatile and “based on thin air” and repeatedly slammed their potential for facilitating “unlawful behavior” like drug trafficking—he has increasingly sought to style himself as a crypto-friendly candidate and is using this as a dividing line with the Democrats to target undecided voters. Trump’s recent efforts to court the digital sector includes embracing “made in the USA” Bitcoin, meeting with Bitcoin mining firms and railing against the notion of a so-called “digital dollar” issued by the Federal Reserve, something the central bank has explored but not indicated a stance on either way, branding it a “dangerous threat to freedom” and vowing to block its creation if re-elected. He is also expected to speak at a Bitcoin conference later this month. Saturday’s attack managed to alter one of the few parameters that could predictably move crypto markets: Trump’s odds of winning come November. Pollsters, betting markets and an array of Republican politicians have all suggested the failed assassination attempt have boosted Trump’s odds of reelection. It is the second time the crypto markets have jumped in this way to a major development in the election. The first was in late June after President Joe Biden’s dismal debate performance ignited chaos in the Democrat camp and amplified questions over his ability to run for or serve another term.
Big Number
$2.42 trillion. That’s how much the total cryptocurrency market is worth, according to data from CoinGecko. The market, which is dominated by Bitcoin at more than half of its total value and Ether, a distant second at around 17%, has grown nearly 5% in the last day.
Tangent
Trump’s likelihood of securing the presidency are not the only factors likely to affect the crypto market this week. Spot Ethereum exchange traded funds, ETFs, are also expected to launch in the near future, possibly this week. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs prompted similar optimism throughout the market—Bitcoin reached an all time high after a years-long slump after a “crypto winter” and series of scandals following their introduction—and Ether ETFs could help inspire a more general rally, as well as push the token’s prices higher.
Surprising Fact
There is a Donald Trump-inspired crypto token, MAGA, with a market capitalization of nearly $400 million on Monday. The meme altcoin achieved a near vertical climb of around 50% on Saturday following the assassination attempt. While it has pared gains with losses of around 16% in the last 24 hours, it is still up 40% from this time last week.
Further Reading
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