Bitcoin‘s BTC/USD recent close above its bull market support band may be a potentially significant technical development, but the next two weeks will be crucial for determining whether this breakout is sustainable or merely another false signal.
What Happened: Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen said in his latest podcast update on Monday that investors should pay attention “anytime Bitcoin closes above either the 20-week simple moving average (SMA) or the 21-week expontential moving average (EMA).”
The bull market support band—consisting of these two moving averages—has historically served as a key indicator for Bitcoin’s momentum.
Bitcoin has attempted similar breakouts twice already in 2024, with both July and August seeing the cryptocurrency briefly rise above the support band before failing to hold these levels.
According to Cowen, the current situation mirrors those previous attempts, with the critical difference being whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above these indicators for at least two consecutive weekly closes.
“If Bitcoin can close the next two weeks above the 20-week SMA, then it’s pretty optimistic,” Cowen states, contrasting this with the alternative scenario: “If we get a weekly close below the 21-week EMA, then my guess is that we get a new low.”
Read Also: XRP Is The Top Altcoin Bet: 10x Research
Why It Matters: This technical analysis is based on Cowen’s “social risk” metric, which measures surprisingly low retail interest in cryptocurrency.
Despite Bitcoin’s significant price appreciation in 2024-2025, social engagement metrics remain far below the levels seen during the 2021 bull market.
“The social risk is made up of five different risk metrics,” Cowen explains, citing YouTube subscribers and views, Twitter followers to analysts, exchanges, and Layer-1 projects.
“Despite what it has felt like at times, retail interest never actually returned in the same way that it did in 2021.”
This disconnect between Bitcoin’s price performance and retail engagement mirrors patterns seen in 2019, which Cowen attributes to similar monetary policy conditions.
“Monetary policy is more similar to 2019 this entire time than it is to 2020 and 2021,” he notes, pointing to quantitative tightening and limited rate cuts as key factors suppressing broader crypto market enthusiasm.
The altcoin market reflects this lack of retail participation, with Cowen noting that “altcoins keep bleeding to Bitcoin” as evidenced by Bitcoin’s dominance rising for eight consecutive weeks.
While Bitcoin trades above its bull market support band, the total altcoin market capitalization hasn’t even reached its 21-week EMA.
For investors, Cowen suggests the next few weeks will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin can maintain its technical strength, or if the current move represents another false breakout.
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