Ahead of a much-anticipated phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, Bitcoin‘s BTC/USD price action remains closely tied to the outcome of a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.
What Happened: According to Polymarket data, a ceasefire in Ukraine has a 61% chance of being announced until July and a 76% chance of being announced until the end of the year.
Vladimir Putin has signaled openness to the idea of a 30-day ceasefire, but voiced conditions that would first have to be fulfilled.
The outcome of ceasefire negotiations could have a significant impact on Bitcoin:
A successful ceasefire might stabilize global markets, boosting investor confidence and driving Bitcoin higher.
If sanctions on Russia are eased, Russia’s need for Bitcoin in trade might decrease, potentially reducing demand and exerting downward pressure on price.
A failed agreement could increase volatility, with additional sanctions potentially pushing Russia toward greater Bitcoin adoption while dampening broader market sentiment.
An escalation might trigger risk-aversion among investors, leading to sell-offs in Bitcoin, as seen during the initial stages of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, when Bitcoin prices dropped below $40,000.
Thus, the impact on Bitcoin demand remains mixed.
Price Action: Ahead of the negotiation call and FOMC meet tomorrow, BTC prices are trading 1.6% down at $81,734.
Also Read: Crypto Leaders Step Up Pressure On SEC As Trump’s Policies Reshape Regulatory Landscape
What’s Next: Market observers will be closely watching the outcome of the Trump-Putin negotiation call, as it could significantly impact Bitcoin’s price action and broader market sentiment.
If geopolitical tensions ease, Bitcoin could find a strong bid from institutional investors, while continued uncertainty may heighten short-term volatility.
While the likelihood of a ceasefire remains uncertain, its potential market effects underscore Bitcoin’s evolving role in the global financial landscape.
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