00:00 Seana Smith
The S&P 500 falling for a third day as tariffs send stocks on a volatile run here at Yahoo! Finance. Jared Blikre joining us now with the trading day takeaways. It fell, the S&P fell today, but it avoided a key level.
00:12 Jared Blikre
Yes, the bull market is still breathing and I’ve never been a big fan of the 20% strict definition. Um, you’ve got a couple cases in history that just missed it by a hair that, in my opinion, were bare markets. But this one doesn’t feel like it. Just, yeah, we do have a different trading character in the market. This is the S&P 500. I’m going to go back five years here. I just want to show you that 2021 high, which was reached at the very, very end of 2021, very, very beginning of 2022, that’s about 4,800. And that’s kind of my line in the sand. So we got a little farther way to go. And by the way, intraday, we passed 4915 to the downside, and then we got that nice little fake news bit and rocketed to the upside. That was 8%. But you think about all the markets that have already gone into bare market, we have the Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Dow Transports. Those are just big ones. Then you have sectors, energy, materials, tech, consumer discretionary, real estate. And then you have bonds. The yields just shot up today. That was the worst day for bonds in months and months. So you put it all together. We’re just experiencing a lot of volatility. And which is comes to my second point here. VIX has taken flight. So, I, we were kind of breaking this down a few different times today. And I’ll just show you the VIX real quickly so we can see. This is going to be closing prices only. I’ll put five years so we can see the pandemic. And there you go. Here’s the pandemic way back here. And I’m not even sure if I captured that. Let me put the 10-year on. There you go. So anyway, this high here, we have not breached that, but my point is the VIX has taken a long time to get to this level. We had that little blip in March, but that was it, two weeks. A lot of times when the VIX doesn’t mean anything, it goes up real fast, elevator up, elevator down. Not the case here. But I did have the opportunity to speak to Bob Lang on Stocks and Translation the other week and he was talking about using protection and buying protection in the option options market. Here’s what he had to say.
03:10 Bob Lang
I’m always a huge advocate for protection, protecting your portfolios, right? I mean, think of it as insurance, right? So, we all have health insurance. Some of us have life insurance. We drive cars, we have car insurance, fire insurance, everything, right? And what do we, why do we buy this insurance? We’re not buying these pieces of insurance for a return because we know that money is just going to be sunk a sunk cost, right? But we buy that insurance to protect ourselves against disaster happening, right?
04:16 Jared Blikre
So here’s the bottom line. You should have bought insurance a while back. It’s too late right now. You don’t want to be buying the VIX at these levels. If anything, you would want to sell it, but I don’t recommend that either. Um, bottom line, this is a tricky time. You need to buy the insurance ahead of time.
04:31 Seana Smith
Yeah, but the VIX is a form, is a way of getting insurance, but you have to buy it before it goes, goes boom.
04:40 Jared Blikre
Exactly. Before it takes elevator.
04:42 Seana Smith
Yeah, before it takes elevator. Um, let’s talk about another asset class that we haven’t talked about as much today, and that is crypto. Um, and there we have seen, I mean, we’re more sort of, we’re used to seeing wild price action in the crypto market, but
04:58 Jared Blikre
It’s been muted. You know, crypto has kind of been a store of value, a store of sanity over the last few days. Here’s Bitcoin. It’s down 1% today. When I say breakdown, maybe that’s not even fair. Here’s the year-to-date price action, and I just want to show you. It bounced off the 200-day moving average. I was right here. Um, not shown on this chart, but then we just kind of meandered around. These were some very low volatile days. Meanwhile, the market was kind of crashing over some of those days. I’m not talking about stock market crashing. But over the weekend, it just kind of slipped, and it broke this support, and we got all the way down to $75,000, 74 and change. And then we rocketed higher. That’s a very important level because when I was talking about Bitcoin a few months ago, excuse me. When I was talking about Bitcoin a few months ago, that was one of my big price areas. So I wanted to see it come down to 70 to 72,000. It got pretty close here, and there are some other technical considerations why I think 70-72 is good. Maybe that is already past, but it’s possible that Bitcoin is the, not necessarily an inflation hedge, maybe it’s just a Trump hedge. And so I’ll just throw that out there.
06:22 Seana Smith
Maybe. Maybe it’s, I don’t know. We always talk about how it’s not really correlated with anything consistently.
06:30 Jared Blikre
Consistently. It changes character seemingly every few weeks or every few months.
